Discounts on laptops are not distributed evenly through the year. They cluster around the points where a manufacturer replaces a configuration with its successor.
The refresh calendar drives everything
Component makers release new processor and graphics generations on a broadly annual rhythm, and laptop manufacturers build their ranges around those releases.
Announcements and shipping dates are therefore reasonably predictable, and retailers plan their inventory positions against them months in advance.
Stock of the outgoing generation has to be cleared before the replacement lands, because two generations competing on the same shelf devalues both.
Why the old model falls rather than the new one
A newly launched model has constrained supply and steady demand, which is the worst possible moment to discount it.
The outgoing model has the opposite position, with ample stock and demand falling as buyers become aware that a successor exists.
The reduction on the old model is therefore the retailer solving its own inventory problem, and it is usually the largest genuine discount in the category.
How much the generation gap actually matters
Generational improvements in general computing performance have been incremental for several years, and most of the gain is concentrated in efficiency and in specialised workloads.
For routine use, the practical difference between adjacent generations is often smaller than the difference between storage speeds or display quality within the same generation.
Where the gap does matter is battery life and thermal behaviour, since efficiency improvements translate directly into a machine that runs cooler for longer.
Configuration clearance within a generation
Manufacturers build fixed configurations, and unpopular ones accumulate, so a machine with an unusual memory or storage combination is discounted before its siblings.
Colour variants behave the same way, with unusual finishes clearing at lower prices than the standard ones despite being mechanically identical.
These reductions appear at any point in the cycle, because they are driven by a specific slow-moving line rather than by the calendar.
What limits the strategy
Waiting for a refresh works only where the outgoing stock remains available, and popular configurations sell through before the deepest reductions arrive.
Support timelines are the other constraint, since an older machine starts its driver and security support period earlier than its replacement.
The reasonable trade is to buy the outgoing generation early in its clearance rather than at the very end, when selection has already collapsed.